That's why we're going with Chastain, a veteran with previous nods for The Help and Zero Dark Thirty. She hasn't won any major precursors and wasn't even nominated for the BAFTA. However, her campaign lost steam along the way. Plus, Stewart is playing an iconic historical figure in Princess Diana. The Academy loves giving this trophy to a young ingenue (think Jennifer Lawrence, Emma Stone). Kristen Stewart was the early frontrunner for a few reasons. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Fayeįor the second year in a row, Best Actress is the toughest of the top categories to figure out.In this case, CODA has the power of the underdog. As other films are knocked out of contention, its tally will rise.Īlso, Hollywood loves an underdog story. Maybe more voters will put Power of the Dog as their number one, but CODA is very likely to be the No. ![]() The preferential ballot tends to reward crowd-pleasing movies. Since the preferential ballot was introduced, a lot of the old Oscar rules and records have fallen by the wayside. It's the only other precursor award to use a preferential ballot, just like the Oscars. Power of the Dog picked up the BAFTA, Directors Guild and Critics Choice Award, but CODA nabbed the Producers Guild, Screen Actors Guild and Writers Guild prizes. Why? The two films have split all the major precursors. Meanwhile, CODA is an indie that debuted at Sundance, features a cast filled with journeymen and earned just three nominations. Power of the Dog's 12 Oscar nominations topped all films. It comes from the iconic Jane Campion (the first woman to win Best Director) and features an A-list cast. A couple of months ago, Power of the Dog seemed destined to get Netflix their first Best Picture trophy.
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